氣候變遷對台灣地區衝擊與調適策略研析子計畫二
Other Title
氣候變遷衝擊與調適性策略研析:森林與糧食面向
Journal
2005永續發展科技與政策研討會論文集
Date Issued
2005-12
Author(s)
Abstract
森林在氣候變遷過程裏，不但扮演主動的角色，同時也扮演了被動的角色。本研究的重點工作係利用文獻回顧了解國內外在以下三個項目研究狀況如(1)森林對碳貯存、吸存與取代功能的推估。(2)氣候變遷對森林的衝擊。(3)森林對氣候變遷衝擊的反應及適應性評估。更而檢討、研擬氣候變遷對森林、林業與土地利用的衝擊的反應、脆弱性與及適應性評估的創新研究方向。文獻回顧結果建議探討氣候變遷對森林的影響，宜將森林分為(1)生物生態方面的森林生態系及(2)社會經濟方面的林業與土地利用。葉、單株林木、林分、植群、生態系與地景等森林生態系多層級觀念，利用5S技術與時間、空間的多尺度觀念，進行森林生態社會經濟多層級地理資料庫建立與碳吸存評估、衝擊評估、脆弱性與調適性評估。森林碳吸存的評估宜由瞭解森林生態系與林業參數變遷的機制、過程探討，才能在衝擊影響及假設情境之未來模擬調適性評估上使力。氣候變遷對森林生態系與林業與土地利用皆有衝擊，但衝擊影響的強度、規模以及過程機制皆尚不清楚，如何透過土地利用造林與撫育，對氣候變遷做調適性經營，仍有諸多知識的間隙，需再研究探討。脆弱性與適應性評估，一般皆針對氣候敏感資源的脆弱性來加以評估。至於適應性則指對氣候變遷的生物物理衝擊，所採取的政策反應措施。所以其評估主要目的在建立容納量(building capacity)/生態幅度(ecological amplitude)如森林潛在生產力，物種林型之適宜度分布與理想的未來狀況(Desired future condition, DFC)。氣候與基線的假設情境、氣候模式資料、脆弱性與適應性評估的方法與模式。是氣候變遷衝擊的反應、脆弱性與及適應性評估的基礎。
Forest is an active and passive role in climate change. Forest is the main part of carbon sequestration in terrestrial area which mitigating the effect of global warming. In the other hand, the forestry section was affected by the climate change. We applied documents review to study the impact, adaptation and vulnerability of climate change on forestry. There are four focused topics in the paper (1) to estimate the sink, flow and substitute function of forest section, (2) the impacts assessment of climate change on forestry (3) the reaction and adaptation assessment of climate change on forestry. (4) to review and develop the creative study direction in impact assessment, vulnerability assessment and adaptation assessment of climate change on forestry. It is better to divide the problems of climate change impacts on forestry into (1) bio-ecological aspect in forest ecosystem (2) social-economical aspect in forestry and land-use. The concept of multi-level of forest ecosystem and temporal-spatial scaling concept are very important in aggregating data and information supported. 5Sspatial informatics technologies are needed in developing geo-referenced DBMS and in the estimating carbon sequestration, impact assessment, vulnerability assessment and adaptation assessment of climate change on forestry. To develop the mechanism and process model of estimating carbon sequestration in forest and land-use section are very important in realizing the impact and doing scenarios of climate change on forestry. Therefore, the intensive and amplitude of the impact could be got by the model. To do planning of adaptation management could be solved. The mechanism and process of climate change impact on forest are key issues to do research. The core issues of vulnerability assessment and adaptation assessment of climate change on forestry are building capacity and ecological amplitude of tree species, stand and forest in the past and existing situations. The desired future condition (DFC) of forest structure, composition and land-use allocation are needed to considered, also. To develop the baseline and the technologies of doing cenarios and simulation are the base of vulnerability assessment and adaptation assessment.
Event(s)
2005永續發展科技與政策研討會
Subjects
氣候變遷
5S技術
多層級地理資料庫
碳吸存推估
森林
林業與土地利用
衝擊評估
適應性評估
脆弱性評估
climate change
5S technique
Multi-GeoDBMS
carbon sequestration
Forest
Forestry and land-use
Impact assessment
Adaptation assessment
Vulnerability assessment
Publisher
行政院國科會永續發展研究推動委員會
Description
會議名稱:2005永續發展科技與政策研討會
會議日期:20051223-20051223
主協辦單位:行政院國科會永續發展研究推動委員會
會議日期:20051223-20051223
主協辦單位:行政院國科會永續發展研究推動委員會
Type
conference paper