利用作物模式(DSSAT)評估氣候變遷情景對台灣水稻生產之影響
Other Title
Using a Crop Model (DSSAT) to Evaluate the Effect of Climatic Change Scenarios on Simulated Rice Production in Taiwan
Journal
第五屆數位地球國際研討會論文集
Date Issued
2007-05
Abstract
Global climate change will impact all economic sectors to some degree. The agricultural production is perhaps the most sensitive and vulnerable, because climate is the primary determination of agricultural productivity. The rising temperature and carbon dioxide associated with global warming may have serious direct and indirect consequence on agricultural production. In this study, the crop model DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) was used to assess the impact of climate change on growth and development of rice. This model was validated by the actual data of rice growth characteristics for evaluate the suitability in Taiwan climate. In addition, the crop model was conducted with data from the global circulation models (GCMs, which applied the daily historical weather data to create the database of climate change scenarios. The result showed that the climatic scenario will cause the yield of rice cultivated in Taipei and Taichung to be reduced by 10% in 2050 and by 20% in 2080, respectively. However, the yield in Tainan and Taitung area would slightly increased with the same simulated conditions. The results of simulation assess not only the safety of cereal crop production during the future environment but also the analysis of risk and uncertainly in cultivation for farmers. circulation models (GCMs, which applied the daily historical weather data to create
Event(s)
第五屆數位地球國際研討會
Subjects
氣候變遷
水稻
大氣環流模式
作物模式
地理資訊系統
climate change
rice
general circulation model
crop model
geographic information system
Publisher
中央研究院
Type
conference paper