Modeling the Potential Distribution of Kolla paulula and Xylella fastidiosa in Taiwan under Climate Change Using MaxEnt Models

Wan-Hsiu Yang; Hsien-Tzung Shih; Chiou-Chu Su; Yu-Han Chen; Dong, Yaw-Jen; Chung-Jan Chang; Li-Hsin Wu

doi:10.6156/JTAR.202609_75(3).0014

Modeling the Potential Distribution of Kolla paulula and Xylella fastidiosa in Taiwan under Climate Change Using MaxEnt Models

Other Title

使用MaxEnt模型預測氣候變遷情境下Kolla paulula與Xylella fastidiosa於臺灣潛在分布

Journal

台灣農業研究

Journal Volume

75

Journal Issue

3

Start Page

545

End Page

564

ISSN

2790-086X

Date Issued

2026-09-14

Author(s)

Wan-Hsiu Yang

農業部農業試驗所

Hsien-Tzung Shih

農業部農業試驗所

Chiou-Chu Su

Yu-Han Chen

Dong, Yaw-Jen

農業部農業試驗所

Chung-Jan Chang

Li-Hsin Wu

DOI

10.6156/JTAR.202609_75(3).0014

URI

https://scholars.tari.gov.tw/handle/123456789/25339

Abstract

Climate change impacts the potential distribution of agricultural pests and pathogens. In this study, maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling was used to predict suitable habitats for the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa and its vector Kolla paulula in Taiwan under climate change scenarios. Bioclimatic variables were selected based on the occurrence data of both species using environmental niche factor analysis. The modeling results suggest that X. fastidiosa shows high climatic suitability in northwest Nantou, west Taichung, and southwest Miaoli, while K. paulula is mainly distributed in low-altitude mountainous regions of Taiwan. The analysis of climatic factors suggests that temperature and precipitation are the principal factors in determining suitable habitats for both X. fastidiosa and K. paulula. Regarding the future distribution patterns under the CMIP6 GCM (BCC-CSM2-MR) and 4 shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) climate change scenarios, there are no significant differences across varying carbon emissions. The distribution patterns of both species showed only a slight northward shift, with no major significant changes. This study provides the first high-resolution assessment of the potential distribution of Pierce’s disease in the Asian region, offering a valuable reference for other Asian nations. Furthermore, by integrating the distribution patterns of the pathogen and its insect vector, the findings provide a comprehensive basis for future pest and disease management strategies.

氣候變遷影響農業害蟲與病原菌的潛在分布。本研究運用 MaxEnt 模型進行整合性分析，預測氣候變遷情境下葡萄皮爾斯病原菌 Xylella fastidiosa 及其媒介昆蟲白邊大葉蟬 (Kolla paulula) 在臺灣現行與未來情境下的潛在適存棲地。研究基於兩物種的分布資料，運用環境生態因子分析選擇生物氣候變數進行建模。模型結果顯示 X. fastidiosa 在南投西北部、臺中西部及苗栗西南部具有較高的氣候適存性，而 K. paulula 則適存於臺灣低海拔山區。氣候因子分析結果顯示，X. fastidiosa 與 K. paulula 分布均受降雨量與氣溫相關因子影響。在CMIP6 氣候模式 (BCC-CSM2-MR) 與四種共享社會經濟途徑 (shared socioeconomic pathways; SSPs) 之未來氣候情境下，兩物種未來分布潛勢僅呈現輕微北移趨勢，整體變化不大。本研究為亞洲地區首次應用高解析氣候資料探討葡萄皮爾斯病相關的潛在分布，為其他亞洲國家提供重要參考價值。此外，透過整合病原菌與其媒介昆蟲的潛在分布型態，本研究為擬定未來病蟲害整合管理策略提供科學且完整的參考依據。

Subjects

MaxEnt modeling

Climate change

Xylella fastidiosa

Kolla paulula

Pierce’s disease

MaxEnt 模型

氣候變遷

白邊大葉蟬

葡萄皮爾斯病

Publisher

農業部農業試驗所

Type

journal article

File(s)

Name

75-3-14.pdf

Size

6.39 MB

Format

Adobe PDF

Checksum

(MD5):edf0c7716aff004967cddda294de8136