Introduction of a model simulation program and its application in a demonstrative expert system to predict optimal spraying time for pest: PopModel 1.5 and Pest Forecast System

Abstract

Three major frequently asked questions from farmers are about identification of the pest, an optimal pesticide spraying schedule, and the most effective pesticide for the targeted pest. Various protection calendars for each major crop have been provided. However, climate changes and the innovative development in the information techniques (ITs) are uprising and making those protection calendars useless. Recent ITs expand in various field with a name of techniques, e.g., Bid data, Iot, AI, etc in order to automate machine, link information between machines, and help human’s decisionmaking. However, the prediction of the pest occurrence and its damage in a crop is not easily done with these new techniques because the prediction is the new frontier that those techniques are employed to approach and overcome. More than three decades have been passed since the theoretical base of the pest model and algorithm for computing process on it were initiated. There is still no usable pest forecast system available for the growers mainly due to the lack of the techniques that can be easily simulated. I used a new concept for creating models with own calculation system and those are incorporated into a simulation program, Popmodel 1.5., with the simulation engine of PopModel 1.5. An expert system for managing pests are demonstrated with a program system called the Pest Forecast System. The Techniques in PopModel 1.5 and the visualized example of the Pest Forecast System will help open a new era in agriculture.