作物生產模式預測

Abstract

本章內容以美國國家研究團(U.S. Country Studies Management Team (PO-63), 1994)對於一個國家或區域在研究氣候變遷時，評估受害性與調適對策可遵循的準則為主，特別選擇其中對於使用作物生長模式為工具進行評估之建議，再配合作者在其建議之作物生長模式方面的相關研究經驗（林，1986,1989,1990；林及蔡，1994；林等，1995,1997）構成本文之撰寫。按該研究團之推薦，IBSNAT所發展之DSSAT模式為最適宜應用於研究氣候變遷對糧食生產影響的工具。本章即針對該模式的應用方向及其意義作一介紹，以為後續研擬未來工作計劃之參考。本文內容以前言為範圍，然後按前言內容進一步說明相關的細節。最後的結語除了確立模式應用的必要性外，也提出未來可能的發展方向。 The contents of this chapter are based on the report of Guidance for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments, prepared by U.S. Country Studies Management Team (P0-63), 1994. In the report, the use of crop growth model for assessing the effects of climatic change to agricultural production was suggested. The recommended models were those in DSSAT program, which was organized by IBSNAT project and later adopted in ICASA group. Part of the crop models in DSSAT has been calibrated in Taiwan by the author of this chapter and his colleagues. This chapter was written with their experiences to elaborate the way of strategy for applying the models to study the effects of climate change on the agricultural production. In conclusion, the necessity of using the model, and the further development based on the application were suggested.