氣候變遷的調適路徑

Abstract

近年來氣候變遷議題備受矚目，然而面對氣候變遷之威脅，各級單位與執行調適計畫之專業團隊往往不知如何才是正確之氣候變遷調適規劃。在氣候變遷與社會經濟發展之不確定性下，也缺乏系統方法與工具去擬定合適之調適方案。為此，本研究探討氣候變遷不確定性下之調適路徑擬定方法，並參考國際間針對氣候變遷所制定之調適步驟流程，說明氣候變遷調適決策六大步驟，從問題界定與目標設定、評估與分析現況風險、評估與分析未來風險、界定與評估調適選項、規劃與執行調適路徑、到監測與修正調適路徑等六大步驟。同時，提供以氣候變遷調適決策六大步驟為主軸之支援調適決策工具AdaptCAB，做為協助調適計畫之檢核工具，提供每一步驟之細節、使用工具與產出，以作為氣候變遷調適決策之參考。 In recent years, issue of climate change was highly focused. But facing of the threat of climate change, the government agencies and the adaptation planning teams often do not know how to make the adaptation plan correctly. Under the uncertainty of climate change and society development, it is also lack of systematic method and tool to help making proper adaptation plan. Therefore, this study brought the methodology of adaptation pathways under climate change uncertainty and developed the six steps of making climate change adaptation strategies, from problem definition and goal setting, current risk assessment and analysis, future risk assessment and analysis, identifying and evaluating adaptation options, planning and implementing adaptation pathway, and monitoring and adjusting adaptation pathway. Furthermore, the decision support tool, AdaptCAB, which is following the six steps of making climate change adaptation strategies, was brought out to help checking adaptation plans. It also provides the details of each step, the use of tools and outputs of the adaptation six steps as a reference of making climate change adaptation plan.