|Title:||水稻葉稻熱病預測 I.氣象變數與病斑數進展||Other Titles:||Prediction of Rice Leaf Blast. I. Meteorological Variables and the Development of the Number of Lesions||Authors:||蔡武雄
|Keywords:||稻熱病;預測;逐步迥歸;rice blast;prediction;stepwise regression||Issue Date:||Sep-1984||Publisher:||植病保護學會||Journal Volume:||26||Journal Issue:||3||Start page/Pages:||171-180||Source:||植物保護學會會刊||Abstract:||
A stepwise regression was used to analysis the relationships between meteorological variables and blast incidence of rice cultivars, Tainan 5 and Tainung 67. Thirteen predicting cquations were obtained for predictir.g the development of the number of “S” lesions. When data from various years were combined for analysis, the equations obtained were more agreeable between measured and estimated values than equations derived from those of individual years.
The most important independent variables included in the predicting equations derived from the first group of meteorological variables combined together for analysis, were minimum temperature, average temperature, hours of temperature 21-24℃, maximum RI-I, hours of RH over 90%, and quar.tity of rainfall. The independent variables in the equations derived from the second group of meteorological variables, were hours of temperature 18.1-21.0℃ and 24.1-27.0℃, hours of RH 75.1-85.0% and 90.1-95.0%, and quantity of rainfall.
When the meteorological variables were analyzed separately, the independent variables included in the equations from the first group of meteorological variables, were minimum temperature, hours of temperature 21-24℃, and maximum RH. The independent variables from the second group of meteorological variables, were hours of temperature 15.1-18.0℃, hours of RH 75.1-85.0% and 85.1-90.0%, and dew period.
Each predicting equations contained 3 to 4 various meteorological variables.
Coefficients of determination (R2) in the predicting equations were significant at 1% level, and the average variations of all the equations, were under 10% except two of them showing higher than 10% in 1977 and 1978. Therefore, it was thought that the equations were reliable for predicting the development of “S” lesions of rice leaf blast.
|Appears in Collections:||植物保護系|
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