東方果實蠅族群變動與寄主水果產量之關係

陳秋男; 鄭允; 黃毓斌; 高靜華; 蘇文瀛; Chen, C.N.; Cheng, E.Y.; Hwang, Y.B.; Kao, C.H.; Su, W.Y.; 陳秋男;鄭允;黃毓斌;高靜華;蘇文瀛; Chen, C.N.;Cheng, E.Y.;Hwang, Y.B.Kao, C.H.;Su, W.Y.

東方果實蠅族群變動與寄主水果產量之關係

Other Title

RelatIonship between the population density of oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalls (Hendel), and Its host fruit yield in Taiwan

Resource

植物保護學會會刊 38(2): 149-166

Plant Protection Bulletin 38(2): 149-166

Journal

植物保護學會會刊

Journal Volume

38

Journal Issue

2

Pages

149-166

Date Issued

1996-06

Date

1996-06

Author(s)

陳秋男

鄭允

黃毓斌

高靜華

蘇文瀛

Chen, C.N.

Cheng, E.Y.

Hwang, Y.B.

Kao, C.H.

Su, W.Y.

URI

https://scholars.tari.gov.tw/handle/123456789/5885

Abstract

從初步資料分析獲知，全省各地每月銷往台北市之水果交易量可作為各類水果之產量指標。進一步利用全省果實蠅密度監測旬報資料，以及重要果實蠅寄主水果之產量指標進行分析。結果顯示，僅以番石榴之產量指標變異即足以解釋58％東方果實蠅平均密度之變異。高屏地區的資料顯示，族群密度數列內存有一個月時差的自我相關；且其區內果實蠅密度變動與番石榴及季節性水果之產量指標間有高度之相關，二者之間存在一至二個月之時差關係。基於上述結果，本文建議可嘗試建構動態迴歸模式來進行短期果實蠅密度變動預測。 Preliminary analysis indicated that the monthly trade record for each fruit shipped from different counties to Taipei City kept by the Taipei Agriculture Products Marketing Corporation could adequately serve as a yield indicator for the total yield of each fruit produced in its origin. The relationship between the 10-day trap records of the oriental fruit fly collected by the island-wide monitor ing network and the yield indicator of its major host fruit was further analyzed. Results revealed that the variable of guava yield indicator alone could account for 58% variation of the fruit fly mean density. Data from both Kaoshung and Pingtung County indicated that a 1-month time-lag existed in the autocorrelation of the data series of mean fly density. The fly population density.was highly correlated with the yield indicator of both guava and seasonal fruits with a 1- to 2-month time-lag between them. Accordingly, we suggest that a dynamic regression model could be constructed for the forecast of short-term trend of the population density of the oriental fruit fly.

Subjects

東方果實蠅

族群變動

寄主水果產量

自我相關偏自我相關

分布時差分析

oriental fruit fly

Bactrocera dorsalis

population fluctuation

host plant fruit production

autocorrelation

partial autocorrelation

distributed lags analysis

Publisher

植物保護學會

Type

journal article

File(s)

Name

38-2-149-166.pdf

Size

1.12 MB

Format

Adobe PDF

Checksum

(MD5):9a102090caa1a804954054b041fe6ebd