|Title:||東方果實蠅族群變動與寄主水果產量之關係||Other Titles:||RelatIonship between the population density of oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalls (Hendel), and Its host fruit yield in Taiwan||Authors:||陳秋男
|Keywords:||東方果實蠅;族群變動;寄主水果產量;自我相關偏自我相關;分布時差分析;oriental fruit fly;Bactrocera dorsalis;population fluctuation;host plant fruit production;autocorrelation;partial autocorrelation;distributed lags analysis||Issue Date:||Jun-1996||Publisher:||植物保護學會||Journal Volume:||38||Journal Issue:||2||Start page/Pages:||149-166||Source:||植物保護學會會刊||Abstract:||
Preliminary analysis indicated that the monthly trade record for each fruit shipped from different counties to Taipei City kept by the Taipei Agriculture Products Marketing Corporation could adequately serve as a yield indicator for the total yield of each fruit produced in its origin. The relationship between the 10-day trap records of the oriental fruit fly collected by the island-wide monitor ing network and the yield indicator of its major host fruit was further analyzed. Results revealed that the variable of guava yield indicator alone could account for 58% variation of the fruit fly mean density. Data from both Kaoshung and Pingtung County indicated that a 1-month time-lag existed in the autocorrelation of the data series of mean fly density. The fly population density.was highly correlated with the yield indicator of both guava and seasonal fruits with a 1- to 2-month time-lag between them. Accordingly, we suggest that a dynamic regression model could be constructed for the forecast of short-term trend of the population density of the oriental fruit fly.
|Appears in Collections:||應用動物組|
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