農業氣象災害發生機率之空間分佈研究
Other Title
Spatial Distribution of Agrometeorological Disasters Occurrence
Journal
第五屆數位地球國際研討會論文集
Date Issued
2007-05
Author(s)
Abstract
臺灣位於大陸與海洋交接地帶，全島地形複雜，使得氣候變化隨地區不同而有明顯差異。常見的降雨、低溫或颱風等異常天氣所致之農業氣象災害，經常導致農民遭受重大的經濟損失，為減少各類農業氣象災害所造成的損失，災害發生潛勢評估尤為災害預防的一項重要準備工作。本研究利用長期累積的氣象觀測站資料，以普松(Poisson)分佈計算大雨發生機率，再以地理統計將各測站資料轉化成有意義的農業氣象資料，並探討以空間內插法估算農業氣象災害發生機率分佈之變化趨勢。研究結果顯示，以克利金(Kriging)法估算臺灣西南部平原地區之大雨機率介於0.4至0.7之間，而山區氣候的變化受區域地形影響極大，以聯合克利金(Cokriging)法，結合地區高程資料進行估算，其大雨機率介於0.35至0.85之間。透過災變天氣機率的潛勢分析，可做為選擇適栽作物及評估人工防護措施經濟效益之參考依據，以期有助於減緩氣象災害對農業生產之衝擊。
The varied topography in Taiwan, lies between the mainland and ocean, made climatic change with obvious differences everywhere. The agrometeorological disasters caused by rainfall, low temperature or typhoon etc. always brought about the serious economic loss. To reduce the loss, it was important to prevent injuries especially the disaster potential analysis. This research was to study spatial distribution of the probabilities of agrometeorological disaster by interpolation methods using the great historical weather data. Probability of disaster occurrence for each station was estimated by Poisson distribution. The spatial distribution of storm probabilities was computed by geostatistics mode. Results showed that the storm probabilities ranged from 0.4 to 0.7 by Kriging method in the southwest region of Taiwan, and ranged from 0.35 to 0.85 by Cokriging method in mountain region. The spatial distribution of agrometeorological disasters could offer the agriculture choose the suitable crop and to develop the protective strategies. The potential information would be able to abate the loss caused by agrometeorological disasters.
Event(s)
第五屆數位地球國際研討會
Subjects
農業氣象災害
地理統計
空間分佈
災害潛勢
agrometeorological disaster
geostatistics
spatial distribution
Disaster potential
Publisher
中央研究院
Type
conference paper