|Title:||氣候預測對臺灣農業之潛在經濟效益-以聖嬰預測在稻米產業之應用為例||Other Titles:||The Potential Economic Values of Climate Forecast to Taiwan’s Agriculture - The Case of ENSO Forecast on Rice Sector||Authors:||張靜貞
|Keywords:||氣候預報;聖嬰;農業;稻米生產;Weather forecast;El Nino;Agriculture;Rice production||Issue Date:||Jul-2001||Publisher:||農業試驗所、中華農業氣象學會||Related Publication(s):||農業試驗所特刊第95號||Start page/Pages:||17-32||Source:||農業氣象之應用與發展||Abstract:||
異常的氣候對農業生產與農民生計往往造成很大的損害，因此氣候預報資訊的準確度與傳播對農民的生產決策具有相當重要的意義。聖嬰-南方振盪現象是一種大氣環流與海氣熱量交換的改變所造成的異常氣候型態，規模強者會造成世界各地的氣候產生許多大幅度之異常現象，也對世界農產品市場的產銷結構產生極大之影響。本研究之目的在分析聖嬰現象對世界稻米生產與貿易之之影響，並進一步探討聖嬰預測所能帶來的經濟價值。初步結果顯示聖嬰對近赤道之西太平洋地區、歐洲與北美的稻米產量有負面影響，對主要出口國印度則有正面影響。反聖嬰對進口國稻米產量的影響普遍為負面，對主要出口國印度與泰國的影響為負面，美國則為正面。發生聖嬰時，準確預測的潛在價值約有228 億美元；發生反聖嬰時，準確預測反而會產生5 億美元的損失。
Weather anomalies frequently cause significant damages to agricultural production and revenue losses for farmers. Therefore, the accuracy and dissemination of weather forecast are very important to farmers’ decision making. El Nino (also known as the ENSO) is a change in the ocean-atmosphere system in the Eastern Pacific Ocean which contributes to significant weather changes around the world. Among these changes are increased rainfall across the southern region of the U.S. and in Peru and severe drought in the West Pacific, affecting Australia, Indonesia, and their neighboring countries. Production, consumption, exports, imports and welfare around the world change as crop yields are influenced by ENSO phases. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the value of improved ENSO forecasts to rice producers and consumers around the world. Preliminary results show that most of the west pacific region, Europe and North America are likely to receive negative impacts from the warm event. The production impacts on the exporting countries are more diversified-positive during the warm episode but negative during the cold. The potential economic value of ENSO forecast during the warm event is about 22.8 billion US dollars, but negative during the cold event.
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