臺灣的颱風、暴雨災害量化分析
Other Title
Quantitative Analysis Disasters of Typhoons (1946-2000) and Heavy Storms (1959-2000) in Taiwan
Journal
農業氣象及農業水資源之應用與管理
Pages
37-52
ISBN
957-01-2649-3
Date Issued
2002-12
Date
2002-12
Author(s)
吳瑞賢
蘇文瑞
廖偉民
張志誠
Ray-Shyan Wu
Wen-Ray Su
Wei-min Liao
Chih-Cheng Chang
Abstract
臺灣處亞熱帶，並位於西太平洋颱風區，每年七月至十月為颱風侵襲的主要期間，平均每年有3-5個颱風與多次豪雨侵，根經濟部水利署統計近13-16年的颱風豪雨資料發現每年平均成3000閻房屋受損，約有128億元金額損失有於此，本研究蒐集統計處理完烕的各項颱風豪雨災害調查資料，配合颱風豪雨的雨分進行交叉比對量化分析，求得彼此間的關連性，以了解各項因子對災害發生與否量級之影響度然後配合各項災害紀錄，建立彼此間的因果關係，完成不同雨型態與災害分析。本研究果發現，不同颱風路徑會對各造成不同程度的累積降雨及災情依據統計結果，颱風災害造成臺灣地區林漁業、人員傷亡及房屋損，每場均損失約20億元右。若將臺灣分成北中南東四區域來看，當颱風累積降雨在北部地區達200mm以上，中部地區達300mm以上，南部地達350mm以上，東部地區達300mm以上時，各地區淹水率即高達40%。「秋颱」爲秋天從臺灣南部北上之颱風，佔秋季颱風比例約60%，且由颱風本身逆時鐘方向旋轉，加上北季風影響，故不其從臺灣西岸或東岸掠過，雨均集中於東部「西北颱」為從灣北部經過之颱風，則會造成臺灣北部及中部集中降雨。
Taiwan, located at the subtropical zone in western Pacific Ocean, suffers the damage from 3.5 typhoons on average yearly, mainly during July to October, and several storms year-round. According to the statistics suggested by Water Conservancy Agency of Ministry of Economic Affairs, annual lost due to typhoon includes about three thousands of houses damaged and one hundred and twenty-eight thousands millions collars of loss. This research has collected data relation to typhoons allotted among many agencies. By analyzing of cross-correlation between the data, the results show that the accumulative rainfall and scale of disaster depends on different paths of typhoon. According to statistics, each typhoon causes loses about 2 billion dollars including the loss of agriculture, fishery, human casualty, and building collapses, There is also an evidence to show when the amount of accumulative rainfall surpassed 200mm in Northern, 300mm in Midland, 350mm in Southern and 300mm in Eastern area of Taiwan, it will be increases the probability of flood to 40% in each regions. Besides, the all typhoons© which appear during fall, coming from the south of Taiwan are 60% of all. Those typhoons during fall no matter coming from the east cr west of Taiwan will certainly bring a great quantity of rainfall in Taiwan eastern area because of their counterclockwise rotation and the influence of northeast monsoon. Lastly. the northwest typhoon which passes through the north of Taiwan will make two obvious mass of rainfall in north and midst of Taiwan.
Event(s)
農業氣象及農業水資源之應用與管理研討會
Subjects
颱風
暴雨
災害
量化分析
Typhoon
Heavy storm
Disaster
Quantitative analysis
Publisher
農業試驗所、高雄區農業改良場、中華農業氣象學會
Type
conference paper
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