農業氣象災害因應策略

Abstract

台灣地區境內生產的糧食作物已無法滿足國人需求，對於境外輸入的依賴度很高。全球暖化預期將導致全球極端天氣發生頻率增加，由於不穩定之災變性天氣對全球農作生產的影響超過平均氣溫的上升，因此如何因應由農業氣象災害所引發的糧食危機，對滿足國人糧食安全需求至關重要。相關因應策略可概分為四大方向，1.提高境內糧食生產能力，2.減少境內農業氣象災損，3.確保境外糧食輸入，4.提升糧食生產預測能力。本篇報告主要著重於第2 和第4 方向的闡述，指出提供災害發生機率資訊以供進行適栽作物和地點之選擇、研發經濟有效之防護措施、以及依據土壤內部排水能力規劃旱作區域，是減少境內農業氣象災損必須重視的方向；利用遙測技術進行國內和國外主要糧食輸出和輸入國之作物生產狀況和受災情形之監測，以及可能之產量的推估，提供決策者必要的相關情報，提早採行必要之應變措施，將可減輕我國在全球糧食危機發生時所遭受的衝擊。 Taiwan’s food security relies heavily on imports from abroad because of the insufficient domestic production. Climate change will result in more extreme variations in weather. Increases in frequency of climate extremes may lower crop yields beyond the impacts of mean climate change. Therefore, it is of ultimate importance to prepare ourselves to meet the impacts of global food crisis. The response strategies for the coming agrometeorological disasters can be grouped into four aspects, 1. Increase domestic crop production, 2. Reduce domestic agrometeorological losses, 3. Ensure imports from abroad, and 4. Raise the capabilities for production forecasting. In this paper, discussions are mainly focused on aspect 2 and 4. Providing disaster occurring probabilities for better site and crop selection, developing cost effective agrometeorological disasters protection techniques, and planting upland crops at regions having faster internal drainage characteristics are directions that should be placed more emphasis on when considering means to reduce domestic agrometeorological losses. Developing an operational remote sensing system to provide timely agricultural intelligence, regarding crop growth and yield forecasts at domestic and other strategic regions in the world, would allow decision makers to take proper actions in advance to better alleviate the impacts of incoming global food crisis.